A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."