Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
